The WASDE report of December 2018 includes slightly higher production and ending stocks for US cotton forecasts in 2018-19. Production is raised 180,000 bales due mainly to a 300,000-bale increase in Texas. 

Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks, forecast at 4.4 million bales in 2018-19, are 100,000 bales above both last month and the 2017-18 estimate.

The forecast for the marketing year average price received by producers is unchanged from November, US cents 71-77 per pound, with a midpoint of US cents 74 per pound.

The global 2018-19 forecasts compared with last month include lower production, lower consumption, higher trade and slightly higher ending stocks. Global production is 645,000 bales lower with smaller crops in Pakistan, China, India, Turkmenistan and Turkey. These changes more than offset a 1.0-million-bale increase in Brazil and smaller increases in the US and Cote d’Ivoire.

Global consumption is 1.3 million bales lower largely due to a one million bale decline for China, but consumption is also lower in Pakistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan. 

Global trade is 600,000 bales higher, with imports up in Pakistan, India and Malaysia, while exports are higher from Brazil, Argentina, Cote d’Ivoire, India and Uzbekistan. Projected 2018-19 global ending stocks are nearly 600,000 bales higher this month, but at 73.2 million bales are down 7.3 million bales from the year before.

This month’s 2018-19 world supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. 

Historical revisions to Benin’s exports resulted in a 375,000-bale decrease in 2018-19 beginning stocks there, accounting for much of this month’s 500,000-bale decline in global beginning stocks.

Forecast global production is reduced 2.3 million bales as smaller expected crops in the United States, India, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan offset an increase in Benin.

Consumption is reduced 875,000 bales, with smaller expected mill use in India, Pakistan, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, and the United States. 

Global ending stocks are 1.8 million bales lower this month, at 73 million bales or 57% of mill use.