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Insight8 Jan 2018Figures from the United States Department of Agriculture show that projected supply & demand of cotton in the US was revised upwards in December
Insight8 Jan 2018Demand for cotton was revised upwards in Brazil in December for the 2017/18 market year, while supply remained stable
Recent figures provided by the United States Department of Agriculture show cotton demand and supply were revised downwards in Pakistan for the 2016/17 market year, relative to projections made in November. Downward revision in supply was driven by a downward revision in domestic cotton production, which more than offsets the upward revision in imports. Downward revision in demand was mostly from the domestic market, as exports fell by a relatively smaller amount compared to domestic consumption. The price of Karachi cotton in Pakistan spiked upwards in the face of tight supply in the market, as it increased 6.1% relative to the week before. In India, both cotton production and trade surpluses were revised downwards by the United States Department of Agriculture. The downward revision in production surplus was due to opposite movements of expected domestic production and consumption:expected domestic production of cotton for this market year was revised downwards, while domestic consumption of cotton was revised upwards. When it comes to cotton trade, the downward revision in trade surplus was due to a downward revision in cotton exports while expected cotton imports remained stable. According to provisional figures provided by India’s Office of the Textile Commissioner, man-made staple fibre production in India dropped 3.6% in 2017 up to October, relative to the same period year before, as a year-on-year drop in polyester staple fibre production continued to offset a gain in viscose staple fibre production. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.5%, increasing the value of the greenback relative to global currencies, and placing downward pressure on the dollar value of manmade fibres and yarns in China and Pakistan.
Prices11 Dec 2017Yarn and filament fibre prices remained constant in terms of yuan relative to the week before, but fell in terms of dollars due to the depreciation of the yuan against the dollar week-on-week. Due to strong demand for chemical fibres, year-to-date acrylic staple fibre production increased year-on-year in 2017 up to October, relative to the same period the year before. Polypropylene also rose year-on-year at a faster pace during the same period. In India, cotton production is expected to expand year-on-year this 2017/18 market year (starting October), according to figures provided by the Cotton Association of India. The increase in cotton production is expected to offset the drop in initial reserves and imports, meaning an increase in supply this year relative to the year before. Demand, fueled mostly by the domestic market, is also expected to increased year-on-year. Exports remained constant, while domestic consumption increased by a slower pace and smaller amount compared to domestic production. Yarn prices in India remained stable relative to the previous week, after experiencing a downturn in the last two weeks of November. With damage to new cotton arrivals from the southern states, this may change by the end of December.
Prices4 Dec 2017YTD chemical fibre, cloth and yarn production in China still looked positive in 2017 up to October, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Chemical fibre and yarn production went up 5.6% and 1.9% respectively in 2017 up to October, relative to the same period year before, while cloth production increased 1.7% year-on-year. Accumulated profits in China’s textile wearing apparel and clothing sector rose 6.2% year-on-year in 2017 up to October – this was much better than in the textile manufacturing sector, which dropped marginally by 0.5% year-on-year during the same period. Cotton prices in India dropped marginally relative to the week before, due to an increase in supply in the market, while yarn export prices stayed relatively stable due to the strengthening INR.
Prices27 Nov 2017Figures provided by China’s National Bureau of Statistics show year-to-date investments in fixed assets in textile manufacture, as well as clothing and apparels, have increased year-on-year in 2017 up to October, illustrating confidence in the two industries. According to the China’s Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, accumulated polyester staple fibre production increased 2.4% year-on-year in 2017 up to October. Accumulated viscose staple fibre production increased at a relatively faster pace:10.9% year-on-year during the same period. In Pakistan, trade surplus fell 5.1% year-on-year, as imports continued to rise at a faster pace (and larger amount) than exports relative to the year before.
Prices20 Nov 2017In China, official figures provided by its National Bureau of Statistics show that the inventory value from the textile wearing apparel and clothing sector rose 3.8% year-on-year in September, 0.3% relative to the month before. Finished goods held in inventory, which makes up 48-51% of total inventories associated with textile wearing apparel and clothing industry, increased 2.6% year-on-year; 1.7% month-on-month. Meanwhile in the chemical fibre industry, China’s chemical fibre production went up 5.4% year-on-year in 2017 up to September. Within the third quarter, production increased year-on-year but underperformed relative to the previous quarter. The global cotton market is expected to have a production and trade surplus from a production and trade deficit this 2017/18 market year. Reserves are also expected to expand by 2.5% this market year. Despite a large drop in year-on-year reserves, China is expected to still have the most cotton in reserves by the end of the market year, accounting for 44% of global reserves.
