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Insight16 Oct 2017According to figures released by the USDA, expected 2017/18 cotton supply in the US has been revised upwards by 5% to 24.52 million 480lb bales.
Prices2 Oct 2017China’s expected cotton supply for the 2017/18 market year was revised upwards by 0.2% in September relative to expected total supply in August, thanks to an upward revision in imports and initial reserves. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s cotton trade deficit was revised upwards by 10.8%, due to higher-than-expected imports. Pakistan’s YTD textile trade surplus dropped by 11.2% in 2017 up to July, relative to the same period the year before. In India, new arrivals from mid-September led to cotton prices sliding downwards, due to a lack of spinning mill buyers. Yarn demand was weak, meaning there was no incentive for mills to increase their inventories. The Indian government introduced a fixed minimum support price of Rs4,230 for one quintal of cotton, in order to protect the interest of farmers in the country. In the US, a source has stated that damages in cotton supply following hurricanes Irma and Harvey were less than previously expected, due to cotton bolls not being open during the hurricanes. Closed bolls increased the likelihood of existing supply surviving the hurricanes, as fibres wouldn’t be exposed to rains and winds would be less able to knock down the plants. In Texas, the harvest had already begun, and cotton that made it to its warehouse was most likely protected by the storm. 30-40% of cotton plants in the South-East had their bolls open during hurricane Irma.
Prices25 Sept 2017August figures provided by the USDA show that Brazil’s expected cotton exports for the 2017/18 market year increased 3.2%, relative to expectations made in July. This allowed expected trade surplus to expand 3.3% to 3.1 million 480lb bales. In the US, August figures show that a boost in productivity has resulted in the total supply of cotton increasing 11.3% year-on-year. A higher stock-use ratio is expected to place downward pressure on domestic price levels. The futures price spiked briefly in September, as a result of the hurricane in Texas and following concerns of disruption in cotton supply. In India, provisional figures provided by the Office of Textile Commissioner show that accumulated fibre production dropped 3.9% year-on-year in 2017 up to June, with the bulk of the drop in output resulting from a drop in polyester staple fibre production. Filament yarn production, on the other hand, increased 4.3% year-on-year in 2017 up to June. Due mostly to an increase in polyester filament yarn production.
Prices18 Sept 2017The value of the yuan dropped 1.12% week-on-week against the dollar. Despite this, Chinese staple fibre and yarn prices moved positively this Friday relative to the week before. Due to the positive year-on-year production figures for yarn and cloth in China, the outlook looks positive this year relative to the year before. The USDA’s forecasts in August for 2017/18 show expected total supply of cotton in India increased relative to expectations made in July, due to higher initial reserves than previously estimated. This is while expected demand for cotton dropped due to underperformance in India’s domestic market.
Insight18 Sept 2017According to figures provided by the USDA, expected cotton supply in India went up 0.6% month-on-month to 42.89 million 480lb bales, from 40.64 million 480lb bales the year before, due to an upward revision of initial reserves offsetting a drop in expected imports.
